The 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Worldwide Threat Assessment offers a reasonable thorough overview of global security challenges. There are however certain emerging threats either underrepresented or omitted entirely. I am going to offer a few of my concerns and my thoughts on the implications of the same for U.S. national security. This is not a classified assessment but rather some informed opinion and analysis grounded in open-source intelligence and expert views.
Insider Threats and Human Intelligence Vulnerabilities
The DIA report emphasizes external adversaries, It notably underplays the risks posed by insider threats. A recent incident within the very agency that has provided the 2025 report, underscores this vulnerability. Nathan Vilas Laatsch, is a 28-year-old IT specialist formerly employed by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). Laatsch was arrested on May 29, 2025, for attempting to transmit national defense information to a German government representative. He worked within the DIA’s Insider Threat Division and held a top-secret security clearance. The arrest followed an FBI investigation initiated after a tip-off in March 2025, leading to a sting operation where an undercover agent posed as a foreign official. This breach highlights counterintelligence deficiencies, internal security protocols and the challenges of detecting moles and/or other malicious insiders. Advanced behavioral analytics and machine learning models, such as deep evidential clustering are offering promise in identifying anomalous activities indicative of insider threats. Unfortunately, the integration of such technologies across intelligence community member agencies remains dangerously inconsistent. Addressing this gap requires not only technological adoption but also a cultural shift to robust and proactive internal threat detection.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Autonomous Systems as Emerging Threats
The rapid advancement of AI and autonomous systems presents both opportunities and perils. The DIA report acknowledges technological proliferation, however, it lacks a focused analysis of the misuse of AI in cyber warfare, autonomous weaponry, and information manipulation. Recent scholarly work proposes the establishment of an AI incident regime to monitor and counteract threats posed by advanced AI systems. Among recent peer-reviewed material is an excellent piece by Alejandro Ortega. “We put forward a proposal for an AI incident regime that will help to counter threats to national security posed by AI systems, . . . Our ambition is to enable a government agency to maintain comprehensive awareness of AI threats and rapidly counter any resulting risks to national security.” (Ortega, 2025) Frameworks such as that offered by Ortega aim to ensure that AI deployments do not inadvertently compromise national security, and suggest countermeasures that can effectively mitigate identified risks. Given the dual-use nature of AI technologies, there is an urgent need for comprehensive policies that address both their development and potential weaponization.
Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) and Aerospace Security
Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) have garnered increasing attention due to their potential implications for national security. The DIA report does not address this issue at all. A 2021 assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence highlighted 144 UAP incidents, with 143 remaining unexplained. These occurrences, often near sensitive military installations, raise concerns about airspace sovereignty and surveillance vulnerabilities. The absence of a clear understanding of UAPs hampers the development of effective countermeasures. Integrating UAP analysis into broader threat assessments is essential to ensure comprehensive aerospace security. I am not suggesting that the I.C. should engage in a hunt for UFOs, as the UAPs are more likely collection mechanisms deployed by adversarial FIS, however, leaving the subject matter entirely unaddressed is questionable.
Space-Based Threats and Counterspace Capabilities
The DIA report addresses space and counter-space capabilities. It does NOT offer the breadth nor depth of analysis and informed opinion into the evolving threats in this domain that I expected. This omission is surprising, considering its direct import to the DIA’s most important customers. The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ 2025 Space Threat Assessment details the growing counter-space capabilities of nations like China and Russia, including anti-satellite weapons and electronic warfare tactics. The militarization of space poses GRAVE risks to satellite communications, navigation systems, and surveillance operations. It also endangers the antiquated GPS architecture on which global trade and national security agencies rely. Ensuring the resilience of space-based assets requires not only technological advancement but also international norms and agreements to prevent escalations in this new frontier.
The 2025 DIA Worldwide Threat Assessment provides valuable insights into current global security challenges, however, the omission or underrepresentation of insider threats, AI and autonomous systems, UAPs, and comprehensive space-based threats indicates areas requiring thorough attention. Addressing these gaps is crucial for a holistic understanding of the evolving threat landscape and for formulating effective countermeasures to safeguard national security.
References
Department of Justice. “U.S. Government Employee Arrested for Attempting to Provide Classified Information to Foreign Government.” U.S. Department of Justice, May 29, 2025.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-government-employee-arrested-attempting-provide-classified-information-foreign-government.
Nakashima, Ellen, and Devlin Barrett. “Pentagon Intelligence Employee Accused of Leaking Secrets to a Foreign Nation.” The Washington Post, May 30, 2025.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/05/30/dod-classified-document-leak/.
Tucker, Eric. “Justice Department Says Pentagon Employee Tried to Give Classified Info to Foreign Government.” Associated Press, May 30, 2025.
https://apnews.com/article/e60388df7f4e07a8d8d942d86513b27c.
Ortega, Alejandro. “A Proposal for an Incident Regime That Tracks and Counters Threats to National Security Posed by AI Systems.” arXiv preprint, March 29, 2025.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.19887.
Defense Intelligence Agency. Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment. Submitted to the Senate Armed Services Committee, March 2025.
https://armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_dia_statement_for_the_record.pdf.
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Space Threat Assessment 2025. Washington, DC: CSIS, 2025. https://www.csis.org/analysis/space-threat-assessment-2025.
Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena. Washington, DC: ODNI, June 25, 2021. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Preliminary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf.
